Is the current explosion in the RPG market heading toward a saturation point? There is a post on EN World regarding the explosion of $1 million+ kickstarters and Erik Tenkar also discussed it recently. D&D and RPGs are flying high right now. But beneath it I know a lot of people – like myself – are weary of all the products and promotions. Here are some of my musings on the current situation and ponderings on the future.
RPGs are flying high right now.
RPGs are everywhere. Last year D&D appeared to have its best year by a noticeable margin. Through platforms like DriveThruRPG, Indiegogo, and Kickstarter, we are seeing an explosion of material from virtually anyone who has a sliver of an RPG idea. 5E-inspired indie products released on any given week on DriveThruRPG are drowned out the following week as new products replace them by a fresh number of aspiring designers trying to show off their newly acquired InDesign skills. Can the current heavy release by independent designers continue?
The previous d20 boom and bust.
We saw something similar to this once before during the d20 boom and bust. Third parties saturated the market after the release of 3E in 2000. By 2005 there were so many products of varying quality that people were burned out and quit buying. I wonder if we are going to see something like this in the near future?
I wrote a post last week about why I was going to leave Kickstarter next year (I shutdown Indiegogo over the weekend). The feedback I received from that post was surprising in that a significant number of people – the majority – had all either cut back on their crowdfunding support, were planning to cut back, or had ended crowdfunding support all together. The reasons included:
– There were too many things being published that they didn’t need (i.e. the market is flooded with product and many people already have more than they need).
– Too many crowdfunded products don’t live up to what was pitched to them (i.e. product quality was lacking).
– Poor business practices (i.e. products routinely delivered late, lack of proper editing, etc.).
I wonder if we are once again headed for RPG fatigue? The market is overflowing with products with varying quality and standards. But, what about all the “collector editions” and “leather-bound editions” that appear in virtually every Kickstarter nowadays? Surely that is a sign of an increase in quality and perhaps even demand?
It is true that high-quality products are being produced. But most people I have spoken to (and like the responses to my blog post about crowd funding, this is obviously anecdotal, so please keep that in mind) in the last few months are tired of the leather collector editions. When everything is a “collector’s edition” is it actually a collector’s item anymore? At some point it is going to register with people who pledge that high on Kickstarter that routinely spending $100 for a book that is just going to rest on a bookshelf and look nice is not sustainable. I wonder how many of these books are going to end up at Half-Price Books or eBay in 5-10 years time (albeit at an inflated price so the person can attempt to recoup their money).
We are just three years away from the 50th anniversary of Dungeons & Dragons (and the 10th anniversary of D&D 5E). A new D&D movie will be coming out in 2023 (a year before the anniversaries). WotC will undoubtedly be capitalizing on the new high-budget film and the two anniversaries with new product releases. The third-party market will try and do so as well. It is looking like the D&D frenzy will only be increasing.
We are also attempting to come out of a pandemic. I suspect that a contributing factor for why 9 of the 13 $1 million+ RPG Kickstarters have occurred this year is due to some people’s feelings and desires to try and “leave the pandemic behind,” and as a result have increased their “fun” spending to make up for the holidays they weren’t able to take over the last 18 months. But will this continue? Is this just a temporary blip? Some people are clearly spending more on RPGs based on those 9, $1 million+ Kickstarters), but most people I know – including myself – are stepping back from RPG spending.
My speculative thought.
So here is what I am thinking. D&D will be everywhere over the next three years with Hollywood films, merchandise, and promotions for upcoming anniversaries. DriveThruRPG, Kickstarter, and other crowdfunding organizations are going to continue full-speed ahead as more people try to jump on the D&D and RPG bandwagon, adding to the available products. But at some point it will dawn on people that the glut of “collector editions” are unnecessary and too expensive to continue supporting, and the continuation of delayed and poorly executed Kickstarters will take its toll on people. I think RPG product fatigue is going to set in. People will look at all the things they bought and realize they will never use most of it. They will be exhausted and drained financially and emotionally.
In a few years time we will also have to reflect on our jobs and life post-pandemic. Many people are already making big changes to their life and job based on the situation they find themselves in, and in just a few years they will see the results of the decisions they are now making and will have to re-evaluate them to see if those choices were the correct ones and if they need to make a new career pivot or change in personal/family choices. The attitude of “let’s leave this all behind and get back to normal” is something we’ve seen before and it has a limited life span. With the RPG saturation point I think we are headed toward at the moment, along with the larger issues tied-to the pandemic and post-pandemic world, what will the results be?
So, those are my thoughts. Do you think there is any truth in my musings, or am I talking utter bollocks!? What do you think?